Mexican Miner Takes IPO to London

Penoles, the Mexican mining giant, plans to carve out its precious metals unit, to be called Fresnillo, and list it on the London Stock Exchange. The total offering, slated for May, is estimated at roughly $2bn and will include $900m worth of primary shares, say executives close to the process. JPMorgan Cazenove is the lead on what the issuer says will create the world’s largest primary silver producer. The decision to list in London is an unfortunate one for LatAm exchanges like the Mexican Bolsa, or the Bovespa-BM&F, which would have benefited from such a high profile and sizable deal. The latter has made no secret of plans to consolidate LatAm liquidity on a single platform. “The decision to list in London was made a while ago, and based on the fact that other big mining names such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Anglo American are listed there,” says a banker familiar with the deal. Peru’s Hochschild Mining listed itself on the LSE in 2006, also via JPMorgan. The deal is timed to coincide with record highs for gold and silver, the company’s main metals. “They’re carving it out to realize untapped value in the company,” says a banker close to process. He notes that within Penoles, the operation has a lower multiple than it would on a standalone basis. Citi, Canacord Adams and UBS will be co-managers on the equity deal. Peñoles intends to retain at least 75% of the ordinary shares of Fresnillo plc on completion of the offer.

LatAm Equity Funds Make Decent Return

LatAm equity funds returned 1.28% in the week ended April 10, according to Lipper. China region funds sank 0.46%, while EM funds rose 1.26%. The biggest gains were made by gold oriented funds with 2.08%, while Japanese funds dropped the most, with a loss of 3.11%. LatAm outperformed the world equity funds group, which overall sank 0.30%. They are up 3.11% year-to-date.

UK Manager Readies New LatAm Funds

BlueCrest Capital Management, a London-based asset manager with $14bn under management – $2bn of which is in EM – is preparing to raise two new funds to take advantage of the opportunities it sees in EM. "Its a combination of market technicals, driven by balance sheet repair in the global financial system, as well as solid fundamentals in EM," Robert Enserro, portfolio manager at BlueCrest, tells LatinFinance, explaining the timing for the two new funds. Bluecrest which invests in multiple asset classes, is raising $150m for a 5-year targeted opportunity in LatAm fund and $250m for a 3-year opportunities investment pool focused on LatAm and EEMEA. They will invest in private debt and equity. BlueCrest has invested in a number of pre-IPO companies in LatAm.

IIF Sees Moderate Growth Deceleration

New data from the Institute of International Finance (IIF) predicts a moderate slowdown in growth across the board in LatAm through 2009. Regional expansion is forecast to ease to 4.4% in 4.1%, respectively, in 2008 and 2009, from 5.3% last year. This includes a decline this year to 2.7% in Mexico (versus 3.2% in 2007) and 4.6% Brazilian growth, from 5.4% last year. However, the IIF foresees a pickup in Mexico to 3.5% next year. Peru is set to fall from 8.5% in 2007 to 6.5% and 6.0% in the next few years, while the corresponding figures for Argentina are 8.7%, 6.8% and 4.2%, and for Colombia 7.1%, 5.1% and 4.5%. Inflation is meanwhile set to hit 6.4% this year, up from 6.0% in 2007 and 4.8% in 2006, says the IIF. It expects monetary policy to hold or tighten in coming months in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru. Mexico meanwhile looks set to ease in the second half. “Most of the countries have shown solid growth in their economic activities and most of it comes from the domestic demand. Investors are optimistic,” says Carola Sandy, analyst at Credit Suisse.

Equity Markets Face Challenging Months

LatAm equity has outperformed other EM in the past month and quarter, but the next two quarters may be more challenging. “The short term outlook is more uncertain for LatAm equities,” says Geoff Dennis, head of equity strategy at Citi, referring to a 3-4 month timeframe. “If the global market continues to be weak, LatAm stands a chance of underperforming because it’s done so well until now,” adds the strategist. Bearish and volatile trading would keep the roughly 20 equity issuer hopefuls – mostly from Brazil – stuck in the pipeline. In the longer run, however, Citi maintains a bullish call on the region. It is constructive on EM and global equities if the US economy manages to turn around in the second half. The outlook for a continued up trend in commodities is still very positive, says Dennis. He notes that despite strong improvements in the region’s fundamentals, LatAm strength is largely supported by firm commodities, with oil, iron ore, copper, gold and pulp among the chief benefactors. LatAm stocks outperformed global EM in March for a seventh consecutive month, according to Citi, which points out the last time that happened was 1997. Brazil’s main equity index, the Bovespa, underperformed LatAm in March, falling 7.8% on the heels of an 11.9% surge in February. Peru dropped 5.1%, while Chile was the region’s strongest riser, gaining 7.7%, says Citi. Argentina and Mexico also had a positive March, rising 5.8% and 5.7% respectively.

DLJ Raises $300m for South America PE

DLJ South American Partners has started allocating from a new $300m private equity fund. The firm’s main principals, Buenos Aires-based Carlos Garcia and Marcelo Medeiros in Sao Paulo, are heading the effort and have already spent $82m across three deals. “Capital markets liquidity has dried up recently in Latin America and we believe that enhances our opportunities to identify investments going forward,” Garcia tells LatinFinance. The firm will employ various strategies, including buyout and growth capital, across all sectors. It will look to take controlling stakes in companies in order to gain greater influence over management and the exit strategy, says Garcia. The executive declines to specify by when he expects the $300m to be spent, though he speculates that given the number of opportunities, it may be a lot sooner than the fund’s mandated 5-year horizon. DLJ has invested in LatAm for several years from its global fund, but this is its first dedicated vehicle. DLJ South America Partners is a joint venture between Credit Suisse and the management team that was set up in late 2006 to target deals in South America. Since then, the entity’s three deals have been: Arcos Dorados, the LatAm McDonald’s business; Fispal, a food and beverage trade show promoter, of which it acquired 100%; and EBEC, an educational company in Brazil. DLJ joins a number of other PE shops raising new funds for the region, including Advent International and the Carlyle Group.